Important questions

[xenith]

Who are the bigger fools:  the talking heads trying to make predictions with 1.6% of the vote counted, or us for watching them?


Also, why are different stations displaying such markedly different results?

Comments

[monissaw.livejournal.com]

Oh, of course

[webfarmer.livejournal.com]

No comment on the first item. On the second, have you seen Karl Rove in any of the media coverage? :)

Either way, "Ding dong the witch is dead."

[monissaw.livejournal.com]

I kept swapping channels, and missing who was who.

It wasn't obvious which way it would go when I posted.

One channel had it's bar down the bottom showing number of seats won, with something like: Labour 28; Lib/Coalition 53; Other 2; Undecided 88

The other had a bar at the top with "Number of Seats Labor Need To Pick Up: 1/6/ 1/4/ 13" and a Ding! every time the number dropped.

(You can possibly guess which was the commercial station & which was the public broadcaster>)

[webfarmer.livejournal.com]

I don't know why they'd be posting different results unless their data sources were different (unlikely) or if they thought they might sway voters who have not yet voted.

Thus my Karl Rove comment. :)

A man following in the dirty tricks footsteps of Republican operatives and consultants such as Richard Segretti and Lee Atwater.

[monissaw.livejournal.com]

That makes sense now ;)

It turned out to be a matter of how they were interprething things, one amost a straight noting of which converged as the numbers got more indicative of what was going on.

The two broadcasts (what's the word for TV? I've just woken up) we were watching started at 6 pm, when counting started in the eastern states which really is rather pointless at first. We (sister and me) speculated on how this might have an effect on voters in the west. Is someone more likely to go with the flow, or try to contradict it. If you care enough to contradict it, aren't you going to vote that way anyway?

[webfarmer.livejournal.com]

My mistake on Segretti's first name. It was Donald not Richard.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Segretti
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Atwater

As I recall, the general thought on early releases of polling results when other polls are open is that it might make people think it's not worth going to the polls if their guy is out of it. Obviously this is not much of a issue in Oz.

This can also significantly impact local races and issues on the ballot as a presidential ballot often has more participation than one of the other elections.

I think there is a tendency to want to vote for a winner vs. making a statement with your vote if given the option. This seems like much less of an issue with preferencial voting compared to what goes on over here.

[cached41.livejournal.com]

Although the overall results of the election were entirely predictable, there's two interesting things in there for me.

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-120.htm - Alex's brother Ben made a good showing as a Green candidate (7.6%).

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/SenateStateFirstPrefs-13745-SA.htm - Look at box F (Greens - 53,000), K (ALP - 295,000), I (Libs - 284,000),& S (Xenophon - 126,000). Nick Xenophon is incredibly popular. As a one man indpendant, he has made incredible inroads. Especially when you consider the Libs and Labor have four or so candidates each.

[monissaw.livejournal.com]

7.6% is a good showing.

Senate thing is interesting. I've lost the window now. Was he high profile for some reason beforehand?

[cached41.livejournal.com]

He was a state senator that came into the senate 10 years ago on a no pokies campaign. He's got a great following and everybody seems to love him.

I voted for him - probably the first time I've put a non major party as #1 on any ticket.

Bit of a local political celebrity - for all the right reasons.

www.nickx.net.au