May. 25th, 2006
A Lesson in Probabilty
May. 25th, 2006 01:54 pmI think probability is interesting, in its simpler forms anyway. Otherwise it creates flash backs to maths lectures.
This is my collection of dice. All different.
At the back is a big wooden one & a plastic orange die that flashes when you throw it. Across the front are a ceramic die (the glaze has worn off the corners, which is why they are dirty), a little one with a bar through it to thread onto something (not sure what it is, possibly bone), a more practical sized timber die, two standard plastic ones (round & square corners), two little ones with really deep markings & a set of poker dice (with card markings instead of the usual pips)
So back to probability. Take a six-sided die. Six sides, six possibilities. Each side has a 1/6 chance of coming up. So what is the chance of getting a six on the first throw? I'll use one of the little die
So what are the chances of there being a six on the next throw? ( Answer )
This is my collection of dice. All different.
At the back is a big wooden one & a plastic orange die that flashes when you throw it. Across the front are a ceramic die (the glaze has worn off the corners, which is why they are dirty), a little one with a bar through it to thread onto something (not sure what it is, possibly bone), a more practical sized timber die, two standard plastic ones (round & square corners), two little ones with really deep markings & a set of poker dice (with card markings instead of the usual pips)
So back to probability. Take a six-sided die. Six sides, six possibilities. Each side has a 1/6 chance of coming up. So what is the chance of getting a six on the first throw? I'll use one of the little die
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A one. So, we throw again. Now what is the chance of getting a six on the next throw? Exactly the same. Six sides, six possibilities. It's not affected by the previous throw |
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Three. Bah. So another throw. Again, the chances of getting a six are exactly the same. They're not affected by the previous throws. |
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So a three again. It had a 1/6 chance of coming up, just the same as the other side. |
So what are the chances of there being a six on the next throw? ( Answer )
The reunion I went to the other day was for the descendents of mother's paternal grandparents, John & Ellen/Helena/Nellie Hoggett (nee McCarthy). They married in 1892 and had a dozen children, all now dead. Ellen's family background is fairly well known, at least back 2-3 generations. John's family though, is a little murky.
( I'll put the rest behind the cut for the benefit of those who aren't interested. However if you like puzzles, come and have a look. )
( I'll put the rest behind the cut for the benefit of those who aren't interested. However if you like puzzles, come and have a look. )